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Sea-Launched Anti-Air Missiles

6 Feburary 2024

The following is commentary on Perun's latest video on the development of anti-air missiles

In the Air Force and Navy’s conception of the air war in the 2030’s, tactics in the air will be dominated by stealthy 6th gen manned fighters controlling unmanned shooters, with 4.5 gen missile trucks far behind the front line lobbing long range missiles. I want to pick apart the 4.5 gen part of that vision, specifically the idea that there will be any truly safe space in the ocean of the 2030’s.

Ukraine’s Unmanned Surface Vessel program has proven it to be fairly easy to churn out large numbers of unmanned surface vehicles, which thus far have kept the Black Sea fleet mostly in port (or in some instances fully sinking vessels like the Ivanovets). These USV’s are fairly rudimentary, just speed boats with thermal scopes, satellite internet, and a lot of explosives. Imagine that these USV’s swap their explosive payload for a single anti-aircraft missile like the AAMRAM or, more worryingly as a dyed in the wool American, a Chinese PL-15. If AWACs was able to reliably identify these 4.5 gen fighters from far way and could access the datalink of these USV’s, those missile trucks would be in for a world of hurt.